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• Posted March 3, 2026

Breast Cancer Cases, Deaths Expected To Rise Worldwide

Breast cancer deaths are expected to continue rising over the next decade and a half, driven in part by unhealthy lifestyle choices, a new study says.

Worldwide, breast cancer deaths are projected to increase by 44%, rising to nearly 1.4 million by 2050 from 764,000 in 2023, researchers recently reported in The Lancet Oncology.

Breast cancer cases are also expected to mount, rising by one-third to more than 3.5 million in 2050 from 2.3 million in 2023, researchers found.

They said these increases will occur despite advancements in detecting and treating breast cancers, with cases and deaths rising in particular among lower-income countries.

“Breast cancer continues to take a profound toll on women’s lives and communities,” said lead researcher Kayleigh Bhangdia, a research scientist at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington in Seattle.

“While those in high-income countries typically benefit from screening and more timely diagnosis and comprehensive treatment strategies, the mounting burden of breast cancer is shifting to low- and lower middle-income countries where individuals often face later-stage diagnosis, more limited access to quality care and higher death rates that are threatening to eclipse progress in women’s health,” Bhangdia said in a news release.

However, researchers also found that maintaining a healthy lifestyle – not smoking, lowering red meat consumption, exercising and having a healthy weight – could prevent more than a quarter of healthy years lost globally to illness and breast cancer death.

For the new study, researchers analyzed breast cancer data covering 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2023, and used that to project cancer cases and deaths out to 2050.

In 2023, 28% of the global breast cancer burden was linked to six addressable risk factors: red meat (11%); smoking (8%); high blood sugar (6%); high body mass index (4%); drinking (2%); and lack of exercise (2%) Body mass index (BMI) is an estimate of body fat based on height and weight.

“With more than a quarter of the global breast cancer burden linked to six modifiable lifestyle changes, there are tremendous opportunities to alter the trajectory of breast cancer risk for the next generation,” co-senior author Marie Ng said in a news release. She’s an associate professor at the National University of Singapore.

“Targeting known risk factors through public health policies and making healthier choices more accessible, while working with individuals to take action to reduce obesity and high blood sugar, is crucial to halting the rise in breast cancers worldwide,” she said.

Researchers also found a disturbing increase in breast cancers among younger women.

Since 1990, rates of new cases have risen by 29% among 20- to 54-year-old women, while rates among older women have not changed substantially.

Worldwide, three times as many new breast cancer cases were diagnosed in women 55 or older compared to women between 20 to 54, results showed.

More information

The American Cancer Society has more about breast cancer.

SOURCE: The Lancet, news release, March 2, 2025